Helen Ang wrote recently doing the statistics showing again an oft repeated spin its an GE 13 is an urban and non urban divide. Quite surprise she’s written as such. So I responded the following:
I think your analysis may be misleading and does not reflect what the picture should be.
I think you should put race composition besides the result. Then we take a conservative position that 90% Chinese and 55% Indians vote for pr. ( I think in town the numbers are higher since more chinese voted this time around but we can have several permutations). If you do this I believe you would get that its not an urban divide as dap is spinning. Its still a race divide with a huge Malay support goes to the existing votes given to bn. If you have the postal votes then we have an accurate reflection.
For example in Bukit Bintang, pr got 30000 votes while bn 11000.
The approximate composition for registered voters (not the one voting) is c74.6% I:8.18% and Malay 16%. So assuming lah all goes out with same composition (of which in reality Chinese did go out in droves) and we take the assumed voting pattern, then c: 7.5 % and Indian 4% ( total 11. 5%) voted bn that would amount to 4700 votes. Remaining bn votes are from Malays ie 11000 – 4700 = 6300. What’s the total Malay votes under our assumption? 16% out of 41000 ie 6560. Meaning almost overwhelming Malay support bn.
This is in line when I did my own personal unscientific survey a day before election. I stop almost everyone at jalan TAR for half hour and my sampling got overwhelming Malay (more than 3/4) wanting to vote bn.
You should do a few permutations and as I did at random and get most Malay supporting bn. I had anomaly at Theresa Seputeh.
Then we expose one big lie again. That dap spin this to hide their racist politics of putting the Chinese under siege.”
Now lets take a few other permutation. Nurul 31000 Nong Chik 29000 (total 60000). (Rounded up). The composition is m: 54.5%, c: 37% and I 18.2%.
Based on the voting pattern assumption. 3.7% voters (chinese) and I:9% goes to bn. That would mean a total non Malay votes of 12% goes to bn = 7200. That means total Malay votes of Nong Chik is 29000 minus 7200 = 21800. Total Malay votes on the same basis would be 54.5% out of 60000 is 32700. Thus in terms of Nong Chik Malay votes he got 66.7% or 2/3.
This is the trend. Substantial majority is still with bn including those urban folks. The urban non urban divide is a spin to hide the effect of DAP racist propaganda. They purposely disregard the votes of bn which are mainly the Malays.
We have been polarized further by DAP. Its time to tell DAP to stop this deceit they are first and foremost champions of all Malaysian first.
Ps I’ve done additional permutation. Iet’s take cheras.
The final voting tally:
Registered voters composition: M:9.56% C:84.14% I:6.16% L:0.14%
Assumed c: 8.4 and i:3% support bn, total non malays bn support is 11.4% of 59000 = 6726
Thus Malay bn support is 10840 minus 6726=4114
In terms of Malay voters there are 9.56% of 59000 = 5640
Thus Malay bn support equals to 4114/5640= 73%
What urban non urban divide? Its the same trend nation wide. There’s no increase in Malay support for PR pun. DAP trying to hide again their racial propaganda effect.